Prospects and Possibilities for US-Mexico Security Cooperation during the Sheinbaum Administration

The start of the Claudia Sheinbaum administration in Mexico provides an opportunity for strengthened US-Mexico counternarcotics and security cooperation. Although a close protégée of the former Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (whose security policies were deleterious to both Mexico and the United States), Sheinbaum unveiled a surprisingly comprehensive anti-crime plan in October 2024. During the López Obrador administration, criminality in Mexico reached unprecedented levels while Mexico’s law enforcement cooperation with the United States plummeted. Far from quelling violence, López Obrador’s hands-off approach toward organized crime groups facilitated growth in their power and functional reach in Mexico, and their expansion around the globe. These developments profoundly threaten US national interests as well as the Mexican state and society. It is increasingly likely that Mexico will turn into a narcostate, even if a stable one. Although the structural legacies and legal and policy frameworks that López Obrador handed over to his successor hamper the implementation of more effective anti-crime policies in Mexico, the United States can embrace the various positive elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan. It should broaden its counternarcotics policies vis-à-vis Mexico to tackle the entire spectrum of criminal activities of Mexican criminal groups, beyond fentanyl trafficking. Countering fentanyl trafficking itself, a key priority for the United States, will be enhanced by a broader and smarter approach. The United States also needs to strengthen its anti-crime policies at home and look beyond relying on Mexico to counter migration to the United States.